Possible scenario
Partial Efficacy Emerges
28% Chance
Ervebo may reduce severe disease but fail to fully interrupt transmission of the rare strain. WHO and Congo would likely keep using it while adding therapeutics, border screening and alternative vaccine regimens.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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