Possible scenario
Orderly Export Restart
45% Chance
The sanctions reversal is implemented quickly enough for Russian producers and traders to move most of the announced 4.8 million tons. Insurers, shippers and banks accept U.S. guidance, while buyers in Turkey, Brazil, North Africa and Asia absorb the volumes.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.