Possible scenario
Allied Sanctions Split
18% Chance
Washington’s reversal creates a gap with European and British sanctions policy. The result is a fragmented market in which U.S.-cleared cargoes face restrictions from EU ports, insurers and service providers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- VLO+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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