Possible scenario
Disputed Evidence Stalls
35% Chance
Israel continues to question the evidentiary basis for the alleged settler attack while opening a narrow police review. The EU protests formally but avoids immediate new measures while it waits for video, IDF logs, and testimony from diplomats.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.