Possible scenario
U.S. Repositions Forces
20% Chance
Washington may respond to Iranian messaging and the Kurdistan withdrawal by adjusting force posture rather than conceding defeat. The practical outcome could be a smaller footprint in exposed Iraqi sites combined with more naval, air defense, or logistics assets elsewhere in the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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