Possible scenario
Information War Persists
42% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the IRGC uses the appeal to Americans as psychological pressure while avoiding a major new kinetic step. Tehran can claim political momentum after the U.S. defense withdrawal from Iraqi Kurdistan without immediately risking a larger U.S. response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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