Possible scenario
Intel Dispute Deepens
25% Chance
The failed warning turns into a political dispute over whether Ukraine is receiving the same real-time intelligence it previously relied on. U.S. officials deny a cutoff, but leaks and congressional scrutiny slow decision-making and create uncertainty around wartime support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.