Possible scenario
Yield Relief Rally
40% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the current risk-on move, with falling Treasury yields easing pressure on duration-sensitive assets and crypto. Bitcoin benefits from renewed ETF demand and short covering after reclaiming the $85,000 level.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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