Possible scenario
Fed Pushback Reversal
30% Chance
The recent rally stalls if Federal Reserve officials push back against easing financial conditions after Bitcoin’s move and the yield retreat. A modest rebound in the 10-year yield would likely pressure crypto and high-duration technology shares.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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