Possible scenario
US Claim Holds
25% Chance
Washington releases more detailed tanker-counting or naval-monitoring data showing that late-September flows were much higher than commercial trackers first estimated. Traders discount the Total CEO’s lower number as a timing or methodology difference, reducing the immediate supply-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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