Possible scenario
Constrained Flow Confirmed
45% Chance
Independent tanker-tracking data and Gulf loading reports broadly support Patrick Pouyanné’s estimate near 10 million barrels per day rather than President Trump’s 20 million claim. Markets treat the dispute as evidence that Hormuz remains partially constrained, keeping a modest geopolitical premium in crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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