Possible scenario
Harassment Continues
40% Chance
Iran-linked attacks and close calls continue around the Gulf of Oman, but no full closure of Hormuz occurs. Markets price a higher war-risk premium for Gulf crude and tanker voyages without assuming a major supply interruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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