Possible scenario
Direct Escalation
20% Chance
Kuwait, the United States or other partners move from attribution to direct pressure on Iran. The risk is that Tehran responds through proxies or maritime actions, making the Gulf shipping threat a broader geopolitical confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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