Possible scenario
Russian Security Escalation
25% Chance
Russia responds by tightening security around Moscow, adding mobile air-defense units, electronic warfare systems, and temporary transport restrictions. This raises operating frictions inside Russia but remains below the threshold of a direct NATO-related escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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