Possible scenario
Energy Campaign Widens
20% Chance
Ukraine expands attacks from individual Moscow-area facilities to a broader campaign against fuel storage, refinery connections, and rail-linked product depots in western Russia. This is less likely than a contained cycle but plausible given the timeline of increasingly frequent long-range strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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