Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China could press Iran to cap the escalation before oil markets and U.S. politics force a larger conflict. Tehran may accept a pause if it can claim deterrence while keeping the nuclear question separate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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