Possible scenario
Managed compromise emerges
20% Chance
A narrower but constructive outcome is possible if organizers convince local authorities that the events are about software development rather than trading. China remains hostile to crypto transactions, but it has historically tolerated some blockchain technology discussion when separated from tokens.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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