Possible scenario
Enforcement escalates
25% Chance
Authorities may use the Solana incident to signal that offline crypto promotion, even if described as developer outreach, violates the spirit of China’s curbs. This would align with Beijing’s 2025 focus on traders evading restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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