Possible scenario
Tightness Persists
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the distillate draw proves part of a continuing near-term shortage rather than a one-week statistical surprise. Refinery outages, Russia's extended export ban, and low inventories keep diesel cracks elevated into early October.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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