Possible scenario
Supply Relief Arrives
23% Chance
A less inflationary outcome is that outages ease and imports respond quickly to high U.S. diesel prices. Cargoes from Europe, the Middle East, or Canada, combined with refinery restarts, reduce the urgency in futures markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Energy -0.7%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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