Possible scenario
Sanctions Escalate
27% Chance
The five-day deadline collapses into a sanctions-focused response rather than a military one. Europe and the United States coordinate pressure through UN snapback mechanisms, oil-export enforcement, and financial restrictions targeting Iranian networks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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