Possible scenario
Nuclear Escalation
22% Chance
Tehran answers the diplomatic impasse with nuclear steps designed to raise the cost of delay. The move remains below direct war, but it increases the perceived probability of Israeli, US, or Gulf security responses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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