Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Pressure Persists
30% Chance
Russia continues low-level pressure near the Polish border through drones, electronic warfare, and ambiguous cross-border incidents that fall below the threshold for direct conflict. Warsaw and NATO respond with more air patrols, air-defense deployments, and public alerts without invoking a collective-defense response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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