Possible scenario
Local Retaliation Emerges
20% Chance
Armed actors in southern Syria respond to the killing, either from nationalist motives, local grievance, or attempts to challenge Israeli control of the buffer zone. The risk remains mostly local, but a second incident would raise fears of a broader Israel-Syria cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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