Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
18% Chance
A backchannel through Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries could offer both sides a temporary off-ramp. Trump may keep the bombing threat public while allowing talks to test whether Iran will cap enrichment or accept inspections.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.7%
- Energy -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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