Possible scenario
Congress Slows Trump
27% Chance
Congressional restrictions passed in September make a broad post-midterm operation harder to execute without a legal and political fight. The administration may still test the limits of commander-in-chief authority, but lawmakers and courts become central constraints.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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