Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Scenario
Assume commercial energy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely ceases during the final week under credible closure or broad suspension conditions. Model the near-term effects on Gulf oil and LNG deliveries, freight and insurance, energy prices, inflation expectations, and exposed markets while distinguishing transit loss from wider war outcomes.
Most impacted companies
Benchmark funds
Market view
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.
| Holding | Change | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | -11.2% | 100% | -11.19% |
| Total | 100% | -11.2% |