Possible scenario
Symbolic Meeting Occurs
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a leader-level encounter that restores direct contact but does not resolve sanctions, verification, or North Korea's weapons program. Trump has shown interest in personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, while Pyongyang may see value in a high-profile meeting without making binding concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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