Possible scenario
Limited Deal Emerges
18% Chance
A less likely but plausible upside case is a narrow agreement focused on risk reduction rather than full denuclearization. North Korea could trade a testing pause or inspection access for humanitarian steps, sanctions waivers, or reduced US-South Korea military exercises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.