Possible scenario
Legal Fight Deepens
25% Chance
La France Insoumise, civil-liberties groups and student unions challenge the gathering bans as disproportionate. The confrontation shifts from the streets to the courts and National Assembly, keeping political tension high but limiting immediate economic disruption unless rulings embolden new marches.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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