Possible scenario
Bans Contain Unrest
35% Chance
Macron and the Interior Ministry move quickly through prefectural orders, arguing that the nationwide riots require temporary limits on gatherings. Courts allow most restrictions to stand, police regain control of central protest sites, and the leftist opposition struggles to keep demonstrations organized without appearing to defend violence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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