Possible scenario
Limited Military Retaliation
26% Chance
The U.S. and possibly Israel respond directly against IRGC missile, drone, or radar assets tied to attacks on commercial shipping. This outcome is increasingly plausible because the fatality raises political pressure to reestablish deterrence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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