Possible scenario
Brokered De-Escalation
24% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries press Iran and the U.S. to restore the June reopening arrangement and halt attacks on commercial ships. This remains plausible because Tehran may want leverage without triggering a direct, sustained U.S. campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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