Possible scenario
Security Posture Tightens
25% Chance
Federal and local officials prepare for larger demonstrations around rallies, ballot counting sites, and city halls. The base case is additional security planning rather than widespread unrest, but isolated clashes remain plausible given the French backdrop and midterm tensions.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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