Possible scenario
Cuts Proceed Internally
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Pete Hegseth and the Pentagon continue treating the firings as an internal force-management action rather than a political purge. Service secretaries absorb the reductions, consolidate headquarters billets, and avoid major disruption to day-to-day military operations.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- LMT-0.5%
- BA-0.4%
- BAH-0.3%
- GD-0.2%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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