Possible scenario
Leverage worries persist
30% Chance
SoftBank completes the debt sale, but the market focuses on the company’s rising leverage and dependence on OpenAI-related returns. This outcome is plausible because S&P had already moved SoftBank’s credit outlook negative and the bond size is large for the high-yield market.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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