Possible scenario
Alliance Reassurance Package
42% Chance
Rubio's visit results in a practical but incremental package focused on air defense, munitions production, LNG supply, and protection of critical infrastructure. This is the most likely outcome because NATO members already agreed to higher defense spending in 2025, and the visit appears designed to translate that pledge into implementation.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities +0.1%
Tickers
- LMT+0.9%
- RTX+0.9%
- NOC+0.6%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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