Possible scenario
LNG Balances Market
20% Chance
Europe attracts additional LNG cargoes by paying a premium, easing the immediate reserve problem. This path is plausible because global LNG supply is flexible at the margin, but it depends on weather, Asian demand, and shipping availability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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