Possible scenario
Saudi Oil Disruption
25% Chance
A more damaging attack temporarily disrupts western Saudi energy infrastructure, especially around Yanbu. Even a short outage would lift crude prices because the attacks show Houthi reach across both military and oil targets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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