Possible scenario
Regional Military Escalation
20% Chance
Riyadh concludes that defensive interceptions are insufficient and coordinates retaliatory strikes with the United States or regional partners. This raises the risk of retaliation against Red Sea shipping, Gulf energy infrastructure, and US-linked military assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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