Contained Cross-Border Exchange

The most likely path is continued Houthi missile and drone fire with Saudi air defenses limiting physical damage. Riyadh avoids a major ground or air campaign while using Patriot, THAAD, and naval defenses to protect Yanbu, Jizan, and Red Sea approaches.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.