Possible scenario
Rollback Takes Hold
45% Chance
The finalized Trump rule survives the first wave of political and legal challenges, leaving lower CAFE targets and the 2028 credit-trading cutoff largely intact. Legacy automakers gain compliance flexibility, while Tesla and other EV-focused manufacturers lose a valuable regulatory revenue stream.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%
- Energy +0.7%
- Utilities -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Tickers
- TSLA-3.9%
- GMM.USD+2.9%
- +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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