Possible scenario
Partial Reopening Deal
26% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly Switzerland broker a limited arrangement that allows non-military commercial cargoes to move through Hormuz under a temporary notification system. Iran preserves the political claim that ships must respect its rules, while the United States avoids formally conceding sovereignty over the strait.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.