Possible scenario
Escort Confrontation Builds
24% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, and some partners test Iran's permit regime with escorted commercial traffic. Tehran avoids a full closure declaration beyond the existing restrictions but increases harassment, drone surveillance, radio challenges, and seizure threats.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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