Possible scenario
Blacklist Enforcement Continues
38% Chance
Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed except for vessels that accept its permit and compliance regime. The shipowners' warning becomes a practical enforcement notice, with Tehran using future access bans and selective cargo seizures rather than immediate broad military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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