Possible scenario
Race Becomes Competitive
28% Chance
The Vance-Nixon confrontation and ActBlue surge give Democrats a plausible opening in a state they had largely written off. Florida remains Republican-leaning, but late money and national attention push the contest into the competitive category.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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