Possible scenario
Nixon Upsets Moody
18% Chance
A Democratic upset remains unlikely but plausible if Nixon sustains the post-Vance fundraising surge, Moody underperforms, and the national environment moves against Republicans. Such an outcome would become one of the cycle's most consequential Senate surprises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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