Possible scenario
Moody Remains Favorite
42% Chance
Ashley Moody remains the clear favorite because Florida's recent Republican shift, incumbency-by-appointment advantages, and GOP turnout infrastructure outweigh the DSCC's renewed attention. Gillibrand's fundraiser helps Nixon stay visible but does not fundamentally alter the race's partisan baseline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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