Possible scenario
Case Stalls Publicly
20% Chance
The investigation may stall, as has happened in some prior South African mass-shooting cases where witnesses are intimidated and firearms are hard to trace. This would deepen public anger but still remain mainly a law-enforcement and governance issue.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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