Possible scenario
Sustained Houthi Escalation
22% Chance
The Khurais incident becomes part of a broader Houthi campaign against Saudi energy infrastructure following the September and early October claims. Markets treat the risk as more systemic because Abqaiq, Khurais, Riyadh and potentially export terminals are all in the threat set.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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